Wednesday, May 11, 2011

10-year Treasury still strong despite monetary inflation

(Click the graph to see it larger)

It seems that every time the metals and crude heat up and the fear of inflation goes mainstream, some event(s) happens in politics or the markets which cause a "risk-off" and keep the 10-year Treasury bond price stubbornly high, with a yield of only about 3.2%. If you believe official CPI numbers this is not horrible, especially considering the measly return on bank CDs and the only marginally higher return on municipals and highly-rated corporate bonds. Every time the 35-year bull market in bonds seems ready to finally turn the other way, it finds a way to stay intact. Perhaps the ending of QE2 in June will be the turning point, but supposing it causes a pull-back in stock and metals, the bond market might STILL stay strong. Its frustrating for silver squirrels, but it gives us more time to save our silver nuts!

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